Findings from the latest quarterly Credit Union Northern Ireland Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) shows that Northern Ireland consumer confidence improved modestly between November 2024 and February 2025.
A continuing easing in cost-of-living pressures means that Northern Ireland consumer sentiment is now at its strongest level in the past two years.
However, if cost pressures have eased, they are far from over for many Northern Ireland households. The February 2025 reading marks a small step in a positive direction but there is still some distance to go. The general tone of the survey is still subdued, suggesting that most Northern Ireland consumers remain cautious and far from carefree.
With household incomes continuing to rise faster than inflation and interest rates falling, Northern Ireland consumers are not seeing quite the degree of pressure on household finances that they felt for much of the past few years.
However, if costs are no longer surging, neither are they falling. So, Northern Ireland consumers remain negative overall on their personal financial circumstances.
While Northern Ireland consumers are somewhat less nervous about their own household finances than they were three months ago, they are a little more nervous about the outlook for the Northern Ireland economy as concerns grow about global economic prospects and the broader geopolitical outlook.
Although Northern Irish consumers remain overwhelmingly cautious in early 2025, the February Credit Union sentiment survey signals a clear easing in concerns compared to the reading for November.
The improvement in consumer sentiment in Northern Ireland in the past three months contrasts with a further deterioration in consumer confidence for the UK as a whole over this period. The recent trend in Northern Ireland consumer sentiment is also somewhat stronger than the effectively unchanged tone of the comparable measure for the Republic of Ireland through the same timeframe.
Speaking on the release of the February data and analysis, Martin Fisher, Northern Ireland Manager with the Irish League of Credit Unions noted; ”The February Northern Ireland sentiment reading is the strongest in the past two years. It suggests consumers are seeing a little light after what has been has been a difficult period of surging living costs.
“As Northen Ireland consumers face into a new year that may bring both financial challenges and opportunities, they can rely on the support of their local credit union.’’
The full report with commentary is attached. Key findings include:
- 48% believe the economy will weaken over the next 12 months (up from 45% in November 2024) while 29% believe it will improve (up from 28% in November 2024). Overall, the past six months have witnessed a continuing increase in those believing that the economy will weaken while those that believe it will improve has stayed relatively level.
- Unemployment remains a concern but has not moved since November 2024. 39% of respondents believe it will rise in the next 12 months (versus 39% in November 2024) while 26% believe it will fall (the same level recorded in November 2024 – 26%).
- 36% believe the financial situation of their household is worse now than 12 months ago (versus 34% in November 2024), while 29% believe it has improved (same figure recorded in November 2024).
- 30% feel the financial situation of their household will improve over the next 12 months (versus 23% in November 2024), while 34% believe it will weaken (same figure recorded in August and November 2024).
- 22% believe now is a bad time to purchase a big-ticket item (versus 23% in November 2024) while 15% believe it is a good time (versus 12% November 2024). The percentage of those having confidence in making a purchase has increased for the third quarter in a row.