Occupier demand for commercial property in Northern Ireland fell flat in the second quarter of year, according to the latest RICS Commercial Property Monitor for Q2 2026, as geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on the market.
When looking at the subsectors, demand for office space fell further into negative territory with a net balance of -29% of NI respondents reporting a decline, down from the -10% seen in Q1. Demand for industrial space fell flat, which is the lowest this balance has been in two years. There was an uptick in demand for retail space, with a net balance of 29% of surveyors reporting a rise in occupier demand in this subsector, which is the first time this balance has been in positive territory since 2022.
Although demand was subdued, rents are anticipated to rise over the next three months at a modest rate.
At all sector level, a net balance of 10% of NI respondents expect rents to rise through the third quarter of the year. Looking at the subsectors, a net balance of -29% was reported for three-month rental expectations in the office market, similar to the balance seen in the survey previous, whilst a net balance of 57% expect rents to rise in the industrial sector, down slightly from the net balance seen in the Q1 report. On the retail side, for the third consecutive quarter, rents are expected to fall flat over the next three months.
In terms of the investment market, there was a similar trend to that seen in the occupier market, with investment enquiries seen to be flat at all sector level in the second quarter of the year.
In saying this, expectations for capital values have improved marginally overall. A net balance of 20% of NI respondents expect capital values to rise in the third quarter of 2026, up from the net balance of 13% seen in Q1.
Garrett O’Hare, RICS NI commercial property spokesperson says: “The second quarter of 2026 was relatively steady in the Northern Ireland commercial property market, but there are some clear signs of hesitation. NI’s retail market saw some pick up in recent months, and anecdotally we’re seeing well-positioned retail units performing well, and this is encouraging for the industry. In the industrial sector though, we can perhaps see an impact from global uncertainty with a flat picture in the quarter. Looking ahead, whilst there are some signs of optimism, I would expect some caution to be evident in the short term.”