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Changing Of The Guard

We didn’t miss much, did we, over the past couple of weeks? Just the arrival of a new Prime Minister in Downing Street, a bunch of newbie Members of Parliament for this parish, Joe Biden cocking up again, England nearly winning a football tournament (again) and Donald Trump getting shot in the ear.

So where to start? Donald Trump seems like the obvious place. You can get your bottom dollar that the assassination attempt last weekend will almost guarantee his return to the White House, like it or loathe it.

Especially if he’s up against Biden, whose shambling, befuddled and rather sad performances mean that he’ll be like a confused lamb shuffling to the slaughter come November when, let’s face it, he ain’t going to be any sharper or quicker off the mark.

The inevitable Trump victory will impact on all of us in some way or another. For starters, with a self-proclaimed Ulster Scot (or Irish Scot, as he put it) by his side in good ole’ boy JD Vance, the administration’s view of this island almost certainly won’t be the same as Joe Biden’s. Or Joe Kennedy’s, for that matter.

Maybe Trump & Vance will do away with the Paddy’s Day bash in Washington DC and invite everyone to pop over in July instead for a spot of marching, a big bonfire (bigger even than Larne’s), some nice buns and a plate of champ.

Mind you, JD Vance’s arrival on the ticket will be music to the ears of Jim Allister, one of our newly elected Members of Parliament, as well as a few in the DUP – like Sammy Wilson – who’ve been ultra critical of Washington’s stance over the years.

Mary Lou McDonald, on the other hands, may quickly lose her enthusiasm for hopping back and forth to the US of A.

It does make you wonder about US politics, though. It’s hard to imagine what the Democrats could possibly be thinking? Their leader is bumbling around like an escapee from a kindly care home whilst Donald Trump is making hay while the sun shines. Almost getting killed by a would-be assassin’s bullet can’t have been much fun, but the big man is teak tough and he’ll turn it to his advantage. If he hasn’t already.

The other side’s only hope is to replace Biden with a fitter, younger candidate who has the advantage of at least being compos mentis…..a fairly basic requirement, one would have imagined, for a Presidential candidate.

If they don’t, we’re all heading into uncharted territory.

Keir’s Storming Start

Regular readers might have picked up the odd clue over recent months that we wouldn’t have been big fans of Sir Keir Starmer. But we’re also no stranger to eating humble pie, so let’s have another slice.

The new PM, we reckon, has got off to a storming start. He’s been sure-footed, he’s been measured, he’s been articulate and, much as it pains us to be proved wrong (again), he hasn’t put a foot wrong. Starmer even managed to look statesmanlike in international company over in Washington last week. As some have observed, he seems to have been born to this kind of thing.

He even managed to jet in to Belfast on the Monday after the election, although he propably left confused and not a little depressed having had to listen to our lot explaining what their many grievances are and what he should be doing about them. Oh, and asking for lots more money at the same time.

We’ve all forgotten, in fact, about that nice Mr. Sunak (or Sinook, as Joe Biden famously called him) and his bunch of losers.

Sir Keir will know all too well that he’s right in the midst of his honeymoon period. It’ll all get a bit more challenging once that draws to a close and politics returns to some sort of normality after the summer and once the downcast Tories decide who is going to lead them back to eventual glory in 15 or 20 years time.

Will it be Kemi Badenoch….very articulate but a bit Liz Truss-like in her political leanings? Or maybe James Cleverly, the safe pair or hands option but maybe tarred by the Sunak brush. Who knows? And does it matter? Starmer, it seems, is going to be with us for a while.

New Kids On The Block

Had we made any firm predictions on the results of the General Election here, we’d probably have got a few of them wrong.

The main stories, as it turned out, were Sorcha Eastwood’s victory in Jeffrey Donaldson’s former domain of Lagan Valley, Robin Swann’s re-capture of South Antrim for the Ulster Unionists, Gavin Robinson holding off Naomi Long in East Belfast and – to be lesser extent – Alex Easton’s win in North Down.

But the big one, without a doubt, was Jim Allister toppling Ian Paisley in North Antrim. Cue lots of stories about the end of the Paisley dynasty and pictures of a dejeted looking Paisley and a delighted Allister, whose dream had finally come true.

To be fair, it was hard not to smirk a bit about Paisley’s downfall, even though he’s being succeeded by an even more right-wing successor. Jim Allister makes Ian Paisley look like a lily-livered liberal. But, to be fair, he deserved credit for his tenacity and self-belief.

It all left us with the fascinating prospect of Jim Allister being on the same green leather benches as Jeremy Corbyn and his old mate Nigel Farage. What a trio? Still, at least Jim won’t have to face any Sinn Fein types across the chamber. They might be the bigger party, once again, but they won’t be turning up.

Still, isn’t it a motley crew that we’ve sent to Westminster? It must have been fun on the flights over to London last Monday and Tuesday, what with Swanny, Sorcha, Jimbo and Alex heading over for the first time to find their way around the Palace of Westminster.

Will they make an impact? Some of them might, some of them won’t. But, with so many Labour MP s around the place, it won’t be easy for anyone to make much of an impression.

Get Your T*** Out For The Twelfth

We spent the 12th of July on the genteel Dorset coast where the date holds no significance whatsoever. So we missed out on the colourful goings on back in Northern Ireland, and Belfast in particular.

Belfast City Council must have been glad they put those Orangefest posters up around the place, trying to encourage us all to see it as a bit of family fun rather than anything more partisan or political.

But, if it was family fun they were hoping for, it was all ruined a bit, not by the Orangemen or bandsmen and women, but by the scantily-clad lady who decided to march alongside the orangemen before flashing one of her assets at a watching cameraman.

What? This sort of thing never happens at an Orange Order parade. The good worshipful masters and the like must have been agog with horror, choking on their tea and traybakes as they watched the footage on telly.

Arlene Foster and Charle Lawson were due to have been fronting GB News’ live coverage of the festivities. Now, we could have put the telly on in our AirBnB on the Dorset coast, poured a cup of tea and settled down to watch the Twelfth, pining all the while for the sights and sounds of home sweet home.

But guess what? We didn’t. Wish we had now. We’d love to have seen Arlene’s reaction to the sudden appearance of a nipple from behind an Orange Order sash.

Old Habits Die Hard

We can never quite get a completely peaceful 12th of July period, can we? Just when it looked as though we’d all done well this time around, it all kicked off on one of Belfast’s interfaces this week.

The nightly trouble has broken out around the Broadway Roundabout area and the obvious concern is that the mouth breathers in other areas could pick up on it before it all fizzles out.

Once again, the PSNI and its officers have to take the brunt of it all. And once again, it looks as though the recreational rioting is being carried out by local kids, egged on by older elements. According to the Belfast Telegraph and The Nolan Show, kids as young as seven have been out there chucking stones and whatever else at the cops.

It begs all sorts of questions. Most obviously, what kind of feckless, useless wasters let their seven year-old kids head out at 11 or 12 o’clock at night to fire missiles at the police? Secondly, what are local representatives doing about it?

And try explaining to an outsider why so-called loyalists are attacking the police force in the first place. What point are they trying to make?

It hasn’t got out of hand just yet, but consider the impact on tourism if it does. We really should be past this kind of thing.

Meanwhile, In Other News

Jim Allister might have just taken his seat in the House of Commons and JD Vance (isn’t it a pity his surname isn’t Sports?) might be bringing a note of gritty Ulster Scots dourness to America, but the message doesn’t seem to have got through to some quarters south of the border.

In fact, an all-party committee in Dublin has called for preparations for a united Ireland to begin ‘immediately’, saying that every government department should exaimine the implications of major constitutional change. And, wait for it, a Green Paper should be published setting out the vision for a united island.

Heavens to Betsy, as JD Vance (or JH Allister) might say. What fresh hell is this, as they might think?

Either the members of the Dublin committee know more than the rest of us, or they’re determined not to let a lack of recent progress get in their way. Watch this space.

richard@businesseye.co.uk

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