Northern Ireland is on track to surpass one million workforce jobs by 2032, according to a new report published today by Ulster University’s Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC).
The latest UUEPC Economic Outlook – July 2026 finds that Northern Ireland’s labour market has continued to outperform the rest of the UK over the past year, recording the fastest annual growth in workforce jobs of any UK region between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, despite employment contracting across most other UK regions.
The report highlights the role of both public sector expansion and sustained growth across parts of the private sector in supporting economic activity in Northern Ireland, while also pointing to emerging challenges around workforce planning, productivity and demographic change.
Labour market remains a bright spot
The Outlook notes that private services have made a significant contribution to growth, with Northern Ireland continuing to experience employment growth in wholesale and retail sectors even as employment in these industries has declined across much of the rest of the UK since the pandemic.
Construction also entered 2026 with strong momentum and is expected to benefit from major infrastructure investment and the continued rollout of City and Growth Deal projects.
While employment growth is forecast to continue, the report suggests that the pace of expansion will gradually moderate over time as Northern Ireland’s labour market begins to align more closely with wider UK trends.
Ulster University Economic Policy Centre Assistant Economist Todd Gowdy commented:
“Northern Ireland’s labour market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Strong employment growth has been a key driver of economic performance over the past year, and our forecasts indicate that this momentum will continue, with workforce jobs expected to exceed one million by 2032. However, sustaining that growth will require strategic policymaking. Demographic change, skills shortages and productivity challenges will all need to be addressed if we are to maximise economic opportunities and improve living standards over the long term.”
Productivity and jobs can grow together
The report also explores the relationship between productivity growth and employment, challenging the notion that higher productivity inevitably results in fewer jobs.
Drawing on new UUEPC research covering UK regions and industries between 1998 and 2023, the analysis finds that while productivity improvements can reduce labour demand in some sectors, it also generates positive spillover effects that support job creation elsewhere in the economy.
Ulster University Economic Policy Centre Principal Economist Myles Patton added:
“The research suggests that productivity growth is more commonly associated with job reallocation across the economy than with widespread job destruction, while highlighting the growing importance of skills development and workforce adaptability as technologies such as artificial intelligence continue to evolve.”
Workforce retention carries significant financial costs and benefits
Within its regular economic forecast, the Economic Policy Centre is today sharing new insights from upcoming research estimating that turnover among Child and Family Care Social Workers in Northern Ireland cost approximately £7.13 million in 2024/25, through recruitment, training, learning and development, and productivity losses associated with vacancies.
If turnover was reduced by 20 percent, the report predicts a potential saving of £1.43 million, enough to fund approximately 42 additional Band 5/6 Social Workers.
While challenges of staff burnout, retention and pay disputes in the social sector are well documented, this research argues that addressing these issues and retaining experienced staff should be viewed not only as a workforce issue, but a significant fiscal priority.
Ulster University Economic Policy Centre Senior Economist Gillian Martin said:
“Workforce retention has direct implications for public finances, service delivery and organisational performance. High staff turnover places a measurable financial burden on public services, while also affecting service continuity and outcomes for vulnerable children and families. The research demonstrates that investing in employee wellbeing, professional development and workforce planning can deliver significant benefits, both financially and socially.”
Planning for demographic change
The latest economic outlook also highlights the implications of Northern Ireland’s changing population profile, with an ageing population expected to increase demand for health and social care services while the number of children and young people declines.
Researchers argue that long-term workforce planning will be essential across both health and education services to ensure staffing capacity remains aligned with future demand.