Sentiment in the Northern Ireland housing market is proving more resilient than in the rest of the UK, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Residential Market Survey.
Respondents in Northern Ireland reported that house prices have continued to rise in the latest survey at stronger rates than in all other regions, and that newly agreed sales have held up. However, there are signs that the global and domestic economic concerns are having some impact, with expectations for the local market easing back from high levels.
When it comes to the headline price balance, a net balance of 85% of NI respondents reported that prices rose through the first quarter of the year, up from 76% reported in February.
In terms of agreed sales, a net balance of 21% of surveyors in NI reported a rise in newly agreed sales through the month of March, broadly in line with the 23% that was seen in the survey previous.
Looking forward surveyors in NI are optimistic that house prices will continue rising. A net balance of 61% expect prices to continue increasing through the second quarter of the year. Whilst this balance is firmly positive, it is down from 82% reported the month previous.
Surveyors also remain positive on the sales outlook, but not as optimistic as seen previously. A net balance of 35% of NI surveyors anticipate sales to rise through the second quarter of the year. And again, whilst remaining firmly positive, is down from 63% seen in February’s survey results.
On the demand side a net balance of -13% of NI respondents reported a fall in new buyer enquiries, which is the lowest this balance has been since August 2023.
Surveyors in NI continue to report challenges with supply, and for the second consecutive month, this balance is in negative territory. A net balance of -9% of respondents reported a fall in new instructions to sell, down from -4% in February.
Samuel Dickey, RICS Northern Ireland Residential Property Spokesman, comments: “The housing market in Northern Ireland has experienced a broadly positive first quarter of the year, with both house sales and prices on an upward trajectory. While this momentum is promising, the broader economic climate, including concern around inflation, may be having some impact on forward looking sentiment with expectations slightly lower than they were. It is though unsurprising to see surveyors reporting rises in sales through the first three months of the year, with buyers and sellers keen to have completed sales before Stamp Duty changes took affect earlier this month. With further interest rates cuts expected this year, this may increase affordability and support this forward movement, however this may be impacted by ongoing supply issues.”
Commenting on the UK picture, RICS Chief Economist, Simon Rubinsohn, said:
“The expiry of the stamp duty break was always going to lead to a pause in activity in the sales market. However, the latest results, and indeed the anecdotal remarks from respondents to the survey, suggest that the shift in sentiment has been aggravated by the slew of negative macro news flow over the past few weeks.
“Looking forward, the impact on the market will in no small part depend on how the economy is affected by the emerging trade war and the response of the Bank of England to the shifting environment. For now, it is noteworthy that the longer-term RICS expectations metrics are still relatively resilient, but they have the potential to be blown off course if the tariff headwinds intensify.”