Findings from the latest quarterly Credit Union Northern Ireland Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) show that Northern Ireland consumer confidence held broadly steady between August and November 2024.
A continued easing in inflation coupled with improving incomes has reduced but not removed concerns around the cost-of living for Northern Ireland consumers. However, worries about the outlook for the UK economy and possible broader repercussions of a change in US policymaking on the geopolitical outlook have increased recently and have weighed more heavily on Northern Ireland consumers of late.
A notable feature of the November ’24 Credit Union consumer sentiment survey is a significant pick-up in consumers buying plans. Preparation for the increased seasonal spending demands of Christmas, together with a step-up in ‘Black Friday’ advertising likely contributed to an increased, and more encouraging consumer focus on their spending power. The recent easing in energy and borrowing costs should also have helped in this regard.
That said, a weaker assessment of future household finances suggests Northern Ireland consumers do not believe cost-of-living pressures have entirely faded. Together with increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, this paints a picture of a still nervous Northern Ireland consumer.
Following clear improvements in Northern Ireland consumer sentiment through the three earlier surveys in 2024, the steady reading for November should probably be seen as reflecting a pause to take stock. There has been a clear move away from circumstances of escalating financial difficulties for many if not most Northern Ireland households, but conditions remain challenging and uncertain as 2024 comes to a close.
The broadly steady trend in Northern Ireland consumer sentiment between August and November should be seen in the context of a marked weakening in consumer sentiment across the UK as a whole during this period and a marginal improvement in consumer sentiment in the Republic of Ireland.
In response to a special question on their planned Christmas spend in the November survey, Northern Ireland consumers suggested that while they will remain careful in their spending, there is notably less focus on cutting back Christmas spend than was the case a year ago.
Commenting on the findings, Martin Fisher, Northern Ireland Manager with the Irish League of Credit Unions said; ”A broadly steady reading in Northern Ireland consumer sentiment between August and November emphasises that while cost-of-living pressures may have eased, they are far from over.
“It is encouraging that consumers are signalling that they are a little bit more able and willing to spend. Credit unions across Northern Ireland continue to be on hand to support members with financial opportunities or challenges”.
Economist Austin Hughes commented; “The November sentiment survey suggests Northern Ireland consumers are still nervous but not quite as negative about the economy or their own household finances as has been the case over the past couple of years. A pick-up in spending plans is particularly encouraging and hints at the possibility of somewhat stronger spending in the Northern Ireland economy over year-end.”
The full report with commentary is available with this press release and key findings include:
- 52% have the same amount of money or more this year for Christmas spending, compared to last year, and 46% will either spend the same or increase expenditure on entertainment. 49% will spend the same or increase expenditure on Christmas presents this year.
- 60% will pay for Christmas expenses (seasonal extras such as gifts, entertainment etc.) from their income (57% in 2023) and 30% using savings (28% in 2023).
- 45% believe the economy will worsen over the next 12 months (up from 41% in August 2024) while 28% believe it will improve (down from 32% in August 2024).
- Unemployment is an increasing concern. 39% of respondents believe it will rise in the next 12 months (up from 35% in August 2024) while 26% believe it will fall (versus 29% in August 2024).
- 34% believe the financial situation of their household is worse now than 12 months ago (versus 40% in August 2024), while 26% believe it has improved (versus 25% in August 2024).
- 23% feel the financial situation of their household will improve over the next 12 months (down from 28% in August 2024), while 34% believe it will worsen (no change from 34% in August 2024).
- 23% believe now is a bad time to purchase a big-ticket item (versus 24% in August 2024) while 12% believe it is a good time (up from 9% in August 2024).