Figures from Asda’s latest Income Tracker report show how the US/Iran conflict directly impacts on families in Northern Ireland with the 20% decrease in liquid fuel prices between May and June easing pressures on discretionary incomes.
The Income Tracker increased by 6.4% annually in Northern Ireland in Q2, marking a 3% acceleration on Q1.
Only the East of England had stronger gross income growth than Northern Ireland in Q2 2026, where earnings rose by 3.8% year-on-year. While Northern Ireland has traditionally lagged other regions due to its concentration of lower-productivity sectors, recent data suggest this gap is beginning to narrow.
However, the easing of oil price pressures, and the subsequent deceleration in inflation, could be viewed only as a ‘lull’ or ‘breathing space’, bookended by the ongoing unrest in the Middle East.
Discretionary income in Northern Ireland currently stands at £137 per week, £27.42 lower than the North-East, the next worst-off region. While it remains the lowest performing of all UK regions and nations, Northern Ireland saw the Income Tracker gain £8.22 on the year, despite a £3.38 contraction on the quarter.
Looking ahead, renewed inflationary pressures are expected to weigh on the Income Tracker. And although the labour market is showing signs of stabilisation, it has continued to cool, limiting workers’ bargaining power and their ability to secure stronger earnings growth.
At a UK-wide level the Income Tracker report further highlights the regional disparities with families in the north of England continuing to have less money left in their pockets after essential spending than those in south. This is despite average UK household budgets improving year on year.
Key findings reveal:
- The average Income Tracker value across the North East, North West, and Yorkshire and the Humber came to £202 per week in the three months to June 2026.
- This was £60 less than the average across the East of England, South East, London and South West, which came to £262 a week remaining after bills and essential spending.
- Households in London had the most discretionary income with an average of £337 a week remaining, while the East of England recorded the second-highest level at £285 and saw the strongest income growth.
- Higher earnings, stronger job opportunities and steady income growth helped households in these regions have more money left over, although rising housing costs are putting increasing pressure on budgets in the capital.
- In stark contrast, households in the North East had just £165 a week left after essential spending — less than half the amount available to households in London — while Yorkshire and the Humber averaged £212.
- Both regions continue to face labour market challenges, with unemployment rates of 5.7% and 5.8% respectively, reflecting longer-term economic shifts away from traditional industries.
The findings come as the Government increases its focus on devolution and regional economic growth, with greater emphasis on boosting investment and opportunities across the UK.
Renewed inflationary pressures could however continue to squeeze household budgets, despite inflation easing to 2.6% in June, helped by lower energy prices.
Commenting on this month’s Income Tracker and its relevance to Northern Ireland, Sam Miley, Head of Forecasting and Thought Leadership at Cebr, said:
“Amidst elevated macroeconomic uncertainty and an ongoing energy crisis, the UK-wide Income Tracker demonstrated its resilience in Q2 2026, with growth picking up to its highest rate in a year. This positive momentum was also visible in Northern Ireland which saw its fastest Income Tracker growth since Q1 2025, as oil price pressures eased towards the end of the quarter.
“However, significant headwinds remain for the Income Tracker, particularly in Northern Ireland. A resumption of hostilities in the Middle East has renewed pressures on oil prices, which will have especially adverse knock-on effects for prices of heating oil, which sees disproportionate use in Northern Ireland, going into the Autumn. These headwinds would be expected to stall the Income Tracker’s recent momentum, with contractions in purchasing power still possible over the second half of 2026.”
Asda remains committed to helping families across the UK and is consistently recognised for having the lowest prices among the traditional supermarkets in independent surveys carried out by Which? and The Grocer.