Wednesday, December 4, 2024
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Trump & The Art Of Prediction

Even the hardest-hearted amongst us, and those who don’t like leftie Labour types, might just feel a smidgeon of sympathy for David Lammy. There he was a while back calling Donald Trump a ‘woman-hating neo-Nazi sympathising sociopath’. As insults go, it was well constructed and pretty effective.

But poor old Dave thought he was talking about a right-wing former US President who’d had his day in the sun. He was wrong. And so were almost all of the wise political commentators and the pollsters.

There’s a salutary lesson in the David Lammy case. It’s always best not to launch into a rant about someone just in case, on the teensy weensy off chance, that you might have to work with them in the future.

It doesn’t worry Ed Davey, mind you. The little twerp took a crack at Trump even after the election result came through. But the chances of Ed ever being anywhere near real power means that he’s unlikely to have to grovel and apologise. Apart from anything else, Donald Trump has never heard of him.

David Lammy, though, is going to have to stuff his face with humble pie and lick the US President’s shoes next time he meet him. And he must be hoping that it won’t be any time soon. Or Keir Starmer might have to take the easy way out and have a bit of a re-shuffle.

As for us at Business Eye, we, of course, always knew that Donald Trump was going to win by a hefty margin. Not for us this talk of the two candidates being neck and neck right up until the last rednecks filed into the polling stations. Or, at least, that’s what we can claim now.

BBC News, Sky News and most of the UK and Irish press can’t claim the same, can they? Because they all, to a man and woman, told us that it was too close to call. Why did they do that? Because the polls told ’em so.

The polls have been wrong about US elections, they’ve been wrong about UK elections, and they were wrong about Brexit. Maybe it’s time to come to our own conclusions and stop relying on what’s evidently about as scientific and effective as reading tealeaves or sticking a yellow flower under someone’s chin.

Order Of The Brown Nose

We’re avid readers of Private Eye, as are quite a few of us of a certain vintage.

The Eye used to have a regular feature called Order Of The Brown Nose, with mentions awarded more often than not to politicians who had been abjectly sucking up to, or currying favour with, their party leaders or others. They were never short of examples.

We thought of Order Of The Brown Nose this week in the wake of the US Presidential Election. Our local politicians were quick to congratulate Donald Trump, some of them with a degree of enthusiasm, others through gritted teeth.

A bit like everything in this part of the world, the reactions were split down political lines. The Shinners and other nationalists had the gritted teeth and pained expressions. The Unionists weren’t unhappy to see the big man back, with Jim Allister reserving a special good old boy welcome for Vice-President JD Vance, a gun-totin’ hillbilly with Ulster (or Irish) Scots roots up in the bluegrass hills of Kentucky.

But it was all a bit cringe-worthy. First Minister Michelle O’Neill sounded positively lukewarm as she talked about Trump’s electoral mandate but went on to say that she looked forward to talking to the new President about the genocide in Gaza.

Jesus, Michelle. First up, he probably knows as much about you as he does about Ed Davey. And, secondly, given that you’re First Minister of Northern Ireland, or the North of Ireland, if you do get to see the President, might it not be more sensible to talk about something a little closer to home. Like American investment in this region, for example?

Just sayin’.

Kemi Comes Out Fighting

Keir Starmer must feel a bit put upon this week. First, his natural best transatlantic buddy Kamala Harris carried the can for Joe Biden’s shortcoming and lost the US Election. Then the Tories got their act together – at last – and appointed a new leader.

Farewell them, Rishi Sunak. We hope you enjoy whatever life holds for you next. And the odds are, let’s face it, that you’ll enjoy it a bit more than leading the Conservative Party or being Prime Minister.

Kemi Badenoch, with Pritti Patel at her side, had a useful debut at PMQs the other day. She’s a bit of a straight talker, is Kemi, but she’s also a bit of a rottweiler. You could almost see Keir shrinking backwards as she leant forward and baited him about poor old David Lammy and his neo-Nazi rant.

It could all be a bit more fun going forward. It’s about time, frankly, that the Prime Minister stopped getting things all his own way. A whopping great majority and then no one to play the bad guy once he got into the House of Commons. It was all too easy.

Fed Up With Elections? Wait……

It’s not that long since last summer’s UK General Election, the one that led to Starmer’s victory parade, and we’re all still digesting the result of this week’s Presidential Election in the US of A.

A break from polling might be nice but, horror of horrors, Simon Harris didn’t surprise everyone by calling an election in Ireland on November 29th, just a few short weeks away. It ranked as one of the worst-kept secrets in politics anywhere for quite some time.

But it’s really not hard to see why Simon made the move. Fine Gael has been riding high in the polls (yes, them again….) since he took over from Leo Varadkar in April, whilst Sinn Fein – seen as possible favourites not long ago – is in a bit of a mess.

The Taoiseach In Waiting a few months ago, or so it seemed, Mary Lou McDonald has been battling against a marked decline in support this year, plus a series of internal party scandals both north and south of the border. So why would Simon wait until March? The Shinners might get their act together between now and then.

Let’s wait and see what the polls say. Then make our own decisions.

Ring Of Fire

We like the sound of foodie entrepreneur Tim McCarthy, who is celebrating 10 years of his Blackfire Foods business, which specialises in hot sauces. Bit of a niche market, you might think, but there are lots of us out here who just luuurrrve our hot sauces. The hotter the better.

Working alongside a hero of the food industry here, meat magnate Peter Hannan, Tim and his team have created seven sauces, amongst them an award-winning Ghost Pepper & Black Lime Ketchup. There’s another made with pineapple, mango and – wait for it – dulse.

Some chilli varieties hit you straight away; some of them creep up on you. Some of them hit your palate; some of them hit the tip of your tongue. Some of them make your ears tingle.

It is very much experimenting with all the different layers and bringing them together. For every successful recipe I come up with, there are maybe 15 that go in the bin that just don’t work for maybe some sort of minor, little reason. It is alchemy.”

All the sauces have a Belfast accent, so to speak. How about the one called Belfastard (roasted pepper with Carolina Reaper chillis) or the Bonfire Chipotle (Mexican pepper with chipotle)?

Our personal favourite, for its name alone, is Pain In The Hole, also with Carolina Reapers. Don’t say we didn’t want you. Tim even posed for a publicity shot for that one wearing a Sudocrem t-shirt. If you know, you know.

Talking Shop

For anyone who doesn’t already know, our latest venture here at Business Eye Towers is a brand new podcast. Episode One has been available for a while, and Episode Two is just about to drop….as they say in the world of podcasts.

Reaction has been excellent and we’ve been adding listeners at a rate that’s surprised even the more confident amongst us. We reckon – although we would say this, wouldn’t we? – that Business Eye Live is a bright and breezy mini business magazine of the airwaves.

Sponsored by BDO Northern Ireland, our first edition featured interviews with BDO’s Lorraine Nelson on the budget, Mark Regan of Kingsbridge Healthcare Group on private health and corporate deals and Mark McAllister of the Labour Relations Agency on employment and the workplace.

The second episode includes Hastings Hotels’ James McGinn on hospitality challenges, Lorraine Nelson’s look back at the budget and Gavin Annon of Belfast Chamber on gridlock in Belfast.

Take a listen – https://www.businesseye.co.uk/podcast/businesseye-live/

Life On The Ocean Wave

To celebrate the ever-lovely Mrs. Buckley’s landmark birthday, we’re off on a short cruise next week to bring what has been a couple of weeks of celebrations to a fitting close.

Mrs. B. didn’t want anyone to know what age she actually is. However, a spur of moment decision to post a smiling birthday night photo on LinkedIn let the proverbial cat out of the bag. At the time of writing, 24,115 people had looked at the post. So everyone knows what age she is, even if she doesn’t look it.

Anyway, no blog next week, for obvious reasons, We’ll be back the following week.

Hasta la vista.

richard@businesseye.co.uk

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