Construction sector workloads in Northern Ireland fell in the first quarter of this year and are expected to flatline over the next 12 months, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Construction Monitor, with geopolitics seen as a factor weighing on the industry.
Overall, a net balance of -15% of NI respondents reported a fall in construction workloads in Q1, which is just below the UK average which sits at -12%.
Looking at the subsectors in NI, all of them saw a decline in activity through the first quarter of the year, according to the RICS report. Looking at housebuilding, net balances of -7% and -13% of respondents reported falls in public and private housebuilding activity respectively.
A net balance of -14% of respondents reported a decline in private commercial activity, a net balance of -13% saw a downturn in other public works and a net balance of -32% noted a fall in private industrial activity.
Looking at infrastructure, a net balance of -11% saw a fall in activity, but whilst remaining in negative territory, this is better than the -27% seen in Q4 2025.
Given the current challenges, it is perhaps unsurprising that NI surveyors are hesitant about the outlook. Respondents in NI expect that workloads to be broadly flat over the next year (a net balance of -1%).
However, with the geopolitical challenges and their impact on inflation, the picture for profit margins appears to have worsened. Respondents in NI expect profit margins to fall over the next year with a net balance of -44% of respondents anticipating profit margins to decline. This is the lowest this balance has been since Q3 2023 and also the lowest when compared to all other UK regions.
Despite the lower workloads, surveyors in NI continue to report skills shortages. 51% of surveyors report a shortage of bricklayers, down from the 57% seen in the Q4 2025 report and 46% of respondents reported a shortage in other construction professionals, down slightly from the 48% seen in the survey previous.
Looking at quantity surveyors, 63% of respondents report a shortage, which is up from the 54% seen in the Q4 2025 survey, and the highest this balance has been since early 2023.
Carolyn Laverty, RICS NI construction spokesperson said: “The construction sector in Northern Ireland has started off the year with challenging market conditions. Much of this is a continuation of what was seen through 2025 but the geopolitical situation has brought added challenges. It is concerning to see that surveyors are cautious on the outlook ahead, particularly when it comes to profit margins. We’ve reported that increased cost of raw materials has been a big challenge for construction professionals in recent years, and geopolitical uncertainty appears to be very much weighing on the minds of surveyors across NI as we look ahead.”
Commenting on the UK picture, RICS Chief Economist, Simon Rubinsohn, said: “The impact of the war in the Middle East is clearly visible in the Q1 RICS Construction Monitor. Rising material costs, a tougher credit environment and increased pressure on margins are already leading some developers to slow construction activity. More significantly, plans for the next twelve months are being scaled back most notably in the private sector. Expectations around housebuilding are now flat which aligns with the comments from leading housebuilders in their recent trading updates and results statements.
“Alongside the tougher financial environment, concerns continue to be raised around the challenges thrown up in the planning process and the ongoing impact of the Building Safety Regulator (BSR). Even with the passage of the Planning and Infrastructure Act and the improved performance of the BSR, it is evident that both these factors remain significant impediments for developers.”