by Richard Buckley, Editor, Business Eye

Consumer confidence in Northern Ireland rose for the third time in a row in the second quarter of this year, driven primarily by a positive response to the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine programme, according to new analysis published today by Danske Bank. The Danske Bank Northern Ireland Consumer Confidence Index increased to a reading of 149 in Q2 2021, up from 137 in the first quarter of the year, and above the index level of 122 posted in the second quarter of 2020.


The survey was carried out in June 2021.

In the survey, local people once again reported feeling more confident about their current finances, future finances, job security and expected spending on expensive items.

Looking forward, Danske Bank said the latest rise in confidence should support consumer spending and wider economic growth.

When asked what had the largest positive impact on their confidence levels, 48 per cent of people highlighted the coronavirus vaccine programme. The success of the vaccine rollout has helped to facilitate the reopening of many consumer-focused parts of the economy, such as non-essential retail stores, restaurants and hotels, and this was another factor that positively influenced people, with 12 per cent of people pointing to the gradual easing of restrictions as a significant positive.

Asked what had the largest negative impact on their outlook, 40 per cent of respondents said the post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland made them feel less confident. For 12 per cent of people, the restrictions still in place to limit the spread of coronavirus were the main negative, while another 12 per cent of those surveyed said the impact of higher prices on their household finances had the largest adverse impact.

In the latest survey, 33 per cent of people felt their financial position had improved over the previous 12 months, but 21 per cent of those surveyed said their finances had deteriorated.

When asked about their future finances, 26 per cent of people surveyed expected their financial position to improve over the next year, compared with 16 per cent who expected their finances to worsen.

On job security, 11 per cent of people expected to become more secure in their job, while 10 per cent expected their job security to worsen. Fifty-seven per cent thought their job security would remain unchanged.

And in terms of spending, 30 per cent of consumers said they expected to spend more on high value items over the next year, compared with 23 per centwho expected to spend less.

Commenting on the latest release of the index, Danske Bank Chief Economist Conor Lambe said:

“This rise in consumer confidence in Northern Ireland has been driven mainly by the continued rollout of the coronavirus vaccine programme. Given the success of the rollout, coupled with the gradual easing of the restrictions, the economy appears to have begun to recover at a reasonably strong pace.

“This latest increase in confidence is another positive development which should support consumer spending as we move forward and adds more credence to the view that the recovery from the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic will hopefully occur more quickly than had previously been expected.”

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Danske Bank's Chief Economist Conor Lambe

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